Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Oil Price Volatility and World Economic Policy Uncertainty on Inflation in Developing Countries

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Published: Dec 13, 2025
DOI: https://doi.org/10.56476/jed.v50i2.80
Keywords:
Oil Price Volatility, World Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), Inflation, Asymmetric Effects, NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag), Nonlinear Econometrics, Shock Asymmetry, Long-Run and Short-Run Inflation Dynamics, Developing Countries, External Macroeconomic Shocks, Monetary Policy, Energy–Macroeconomy Linkages, Global Uncertainty Shocks, Inflation Modeling, Energy Price Shocks, International Macroeconomic Policy, Volatility–Inflation Nexus

Main Article Content

N’yilimon Nantob
Department of Economics, University of Lomé, Togo

Abstract

This study examines the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility and global economic policy uncertainty on inflation in 74 developing countries over the period 1994Q1–2022Q4. Employing a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) framework, the analysis confirms that both oil price volatility and economic policy uncertainty exert asymmetric influences on inflation, particularly in the long run. The findings demonstrate that positive and negative shocks to oil price volatility and policy uncertainty affect inflation differently, underscoring the importance of accounting for asymmetry in modeling inflation dynamics. By highlighting the differentiated impacts of these external shocks, the study provides deeper insights into the drivers of the inflationary process in developing economies and offers useful implications for monetary and energy policy design.

Article Details

How to Cite
Nantob, N’yilimon. 2025. “Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Oil Price Volatility and World Economic Policy Uncertainty on Inflation in Developing Countries”. Journal of Energy and Development 50 (2):195–231. https://doi.org/10.56476/jed.v50i2.80.
Issue
Vol. 50 No. 2 (2025): Journal of Energy and Development
Section
Articles
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Author Biography

N’yilimon Nantob, Department of Economics, University of Lomé, Togo

N’yilimon Nantob is an Assistant Professor at the University of Lomé, Department of Economics. He earned his Master’s degree in Economics from the University of Ouagadougou through the Inter-University Postgraduate Program (PTCI). He completed his doctoral studies through the New Inter-University Doctoral Program (NPTCI) at the University of Yaoundé II-Soa and the University of Cocody-Abidjan, where he earned his Ph.D. in Economics. His research interests include macroeconomics, monetary economics, energy economics, international finance, and applied econometrics. Dr. Nantob has participated in several high-level international conferences, most notably the Center for the Study of African Economies (CSAE) Conferences in 2014 and 2016 at St Catherine’s College, University of Oxford (UK). The author’s publications have appeared in Economics Bulletin, African Development Review, International Economics, African Integration and Development Review, and West Africa Economic Review.

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